Stricken Progress M-27M spotted by ISS – Entry path under evaluation
As the Russians continue their evaluations into the failure of the Progress M27-M mission, the resupply vehicle has been spotted passing the International Space Station (ISS). The vehicle – still spinning out of control – is in an orbit that is no threat to the orbital outpost, with the main evaluations now focusing on where the spacecraft will deorbit in the coming days.
http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/05/stricken-progress-m-27m-spotted-iss-entry-evaluation/
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Story - update for SLATE dot-com:
today, the Progress M27-M capsule is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere. Things like this are notoriously hard to predict, but according to Roscosmos the window for re-entry is between 21:45 and 03:36 UTC (5:45–11:36 p.m. Eastern U.S. time) Thursday.
That’s a big window, and covers a vast amount of the planet. The ground track (the path of the capsule traced over the ground) is also hard to predict, but your best bets are Heavens-Above.com and N2YO. I’m not sure how accurate those sites will be as the capsule dips lower and the orbit decays, however.
In general, large satellites are designed to be de-orbited over the Pacific Ocean, a huge tract of uninhabited water. That gives engineers plenty of room to bring down the object. But in an uncontrolled re-entry, it could come down anywhere along its orbital track.
The Progress capsule is designed to break apart and burn up efficiently as it comes down. There are some bigger pieces that could survive to the ground, however. BUT—and this is a big but—the Earth is very, very large. The chance of a piece coming down and hitting anyone is extraordinarily small.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/05/07/russian_progress_capsule_re_entry_expected_today.html
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