March 2013 -- Conclave in Sistine Chapel is not akin to "Iowa Caucuses" / Camarlengo not favorite

from National Catholic Reporter (ncronline.org) story by John Allen --

First, a conclave is not the Iowa caucuses. Either John Paul II or Benedict XVI appointed each of the 117 cardinals who will cast a ballot, including 11 Americans, so there will be little ideological clash. No matter what happens, the church almost certainly won't reverse its bans on abortion, gay marriage or women priests.

Papal transitions are more about changes in tone than substance. For instance, imagine two different answers from the new pope about gay marriage.

Answer one: "Assaults on the family are a moral cancer, and we must defend God's truth." Answer two: "Church teaching is well-known, but our desire is to reach out in a spirit of love." It's the same content, but the feel is vastly different.

The second point is that the conclave of 2013 is different from the last edition in 2005 in five key respects:

• This conclave follows resignation rather than death. There will be no round-the-clock eulogies, no tidal wave of mourners, so cardinals may feel greater freedom to be critical. Moreover, having taken an unexpected step, Benedict has encouraged thinking outside the box.
• In 2005, only two cardinals had been in a conclave before -- American William Baum and Joseph Ratzinger, who became Benedict XVI. This time, 50 of the 117 electors are conclave veterans. That could mean the cardinals will be better organized, but it could also augur a prolonged process if all those old hands want a say.
• It seemed clear in 2005 that the opening rounds shaped up as a yes or no to Ratzinger. Today, while there are a number of figures perceived as plausible, there doesn't seem to be a single point of reference.
• Last time, there was a possibility to go to a simple majority vote after 30-plus ballots. Once a candidate crossed the 50 percent threshold, his election seemed inevitable. Benedict removed that provision in June 2007, which means the new pope has to get two-thirds, perhaps making compromise essential.
• In 2005, Ratzinger was ideally positioned to consolidate consensus in his role as dean of the College of Cardinals. This time the dean is Italian Cardinal Angelo Sodano, who's already 85. The other key figure in the interregnum, Italian Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone, the camerlengo, is not seen as a serious candidate. As a result, nobody has a built-in advantage during the interim period.

Taken together, these contrasts with 2005 suggest that the papal election of 2013 is more difficult to handicap from the outside, and on the inside it may be more complicated to cobble together a winning coalition.