Peaceful change as Egypt changes leaders? - one part of study (Politico essay)

www.politico.com/

President Barack Obama and his advisors met at the White House Saturday (January 29, 2011) to assess the fast-moving situation in Egypt as protesters took to the streets for a fifth day.

Meantime, Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman was sworn in as vice president Saturday -- the first person to hold that post since Hosni Mubarak became Egypt's president in 1981.
The appointment of the veteran Egyptian security official and Mubarak confidante who has dealt extensively with Washington on the peace process and counterterrorism matters came hours after the embattled Mubarak announced overnight that he would dissolve his cabinet and implement political and economic reforms.
Obama said he pressed Mubarak in a late night phone call Friday (1/28/11) to make good on his pledge for reforms, and said violence is not the way to deal with grievances that have built up in Egyptian society.
Meantime, Al Jazeera reported Saturday that Mubarak's two sons Gamal and Alaa and their families had arrived in London. Mubarak had been positioning Gamal as a possible successor, so his reported departure would, if confirmed, be another signal of the coming end of the three-decade Mubarak era in Egypt. (The BBC also later reported that Gamal and Alaa Mubarak and their families have arrived in the UK. Egypt state television, however, denied the reports that Gamal had left the country. A State Department official said Saturday he did not know if the report was true, but noted such rumors have been flying for days.)
The appointment to vice president of Suleiman, a top Mubarak security advisor and foe of Islamism who has a strong working rapport with Washington (and in particular the CIA) as well as Israel and other Middle East capitals, could suggest a potential transition figure and bulwark against instability as Mubarak's exit is envisioned. But Egyptian protesters are unlikely to be appeased by the appointment, Washington Egypt experts said, given Suleiman's close association with the Mubarak regime and the human rights abuses and torture perpetrated by Egypt's security apparatus.
"I doubt that Suleiman will be acceptable as vice president, and therefore heir apparent to the presidency, to the protestors," said the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Michele Dunne, a former U.S. official who co-chairs a bipartisan Egypt working group advocating for democratic and human rights reforms. "He is closely linked to Mubarak and, as head of intellligence, linked to human rights abuses over the years."
"The message [of Suleiman's appointment] is intended to be, even if Mubarak goes, the system remains," Jon Alterman, an Egypt expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Saturday.
"I don't think Suleiman seeks the presidency," Alterman continued. "That being said, it's hard to imagine Mubarak is president in a year."
Foreign policy scholar Robert Kagan, who co-chairs the bipartisan Egypt working group that has been urging the Obama administration to prepare for the post-Mubarak era, said he welcomed Obama's comments after his conversation with Mubarak Friday night.
"They're not as on the fence as people think," Kagan, of the Brookings Institution, said by e-mail Saturday, referring to the U.S. administration. "I think the administration knows there has to be some kind of transition soon."
Kagan envisions a possible transition scenario under which Mubarak would agree to take steps to allow free and fair, internationally monitored presidential elections in September 2011, open up the press, etc. that would make way for Mubarak's peaceful departure in the next six months.
"The only way out for Mubarak is to allow free and fair, competitive elections, including inviting international monitors to come in," Kagan said. "And right away, because they have to monitor months of campaigning leading up to the elections."
"If Mubarak announced this right away, it could prevent him from being toppled," Kagan said. "It is possible that Egyptians would still want Mubarak out even if he made these concessions, but I think it could work."
From Washington's perspective, Alterman said, "peaceful change is most likely to lead to a more inclusive government, and violence is likely to lead to an extended period of tension and instability and radicalize both sides. The clear U.S. interest is in avoiding a bloodbath in the streets."